EDITOR-IN-CHIEF’S ARTICLE.RELEVANCE OF RESEARCH OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE REGIONS OF RUSSIA

Abstract

Dear readers, researchers, authors of articles!

We have decided to start the first issue of the Beneficium journal 2025 with one of the most important topics to which modern research by specialists in the field of regional economics and demography should be devoted. It is obvious that long-term negative demographic trends have actualized the search for reserves for the demographic development of Russian regions. The key factors of demographic development, stated in the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, are the birth rate and life expectancy of the population. However, negative demographic trends are noticeable – low birth rates, a decrease in the number and aging of the working-age population. These trends are not only a prerequisite for high risks for effective long-term regional economic growth, create challenges for the economy, but also cause a labor shortage, an increase in the demographic burden on the budget system.

Today, the issue of increasing the number of residents of Russian regions is relevant. The growth of the number of residents in the regions, changing their age structure is possible by attracting more young people to the cities where universities are located. Options for solving demographic issues by attracting students to the regions can be found in foreign practice. For example, in Japan, a program for the internationalization of higher education is being implemented, the goal of which is to form long-term interaction with other countries in the academic sphere, disseminate knowledge about the country and strengthen mutual understanding. The complex of measures of this program includes: scholarship support for student and academic mobility, holding cultural events, implementing academic exchanges, and developing institutional partnerships in the field of higher education. Scientists from the Institute of Economics of the Yaroslav-the-Wise Novgorod State University have been working for several years to develop and test a methodology for assessing the mutual influence of the university and the region, including within the framework of the "Mirror Laboratories" project with the NRI HSE.

Demographic challenges require the regional system of higher education to become an active driver of regional development. Regional development of education has now become a state priority, i.e. inclusion of the university in the regional system and its multidimensional influence on all its elements, including demography.

In addition, it seems that it is necessary to use modern and effective prognostic tools that allow forming real scenarios of the demographic development of territories with a high degree of reliability in order to ensure the validity of the choice of demographic policy measures. In my opinion, technologies for designing and managing the future, such as predictive analytics, are becoming in demand.

Predictive analytics tools are beginning to be actively used by businesses, but is not used in forecasting the demographic development of regions. The following problem needs to be solved: is it really possible to combine modern approaches to managing the demographic development of regions and predictive analytics methods in order to justify the choice of the best scenarios for achieving the demographic well-being of regions and, accordingly, the growth of socio-economic indicators. It is important to have not just an episodic, albeit accurate, “guessing” of individual facts of the future both for business entities and for regions. Science and practice require confirmed effective application of methodological tools for obtaining panoramic predictive information for timely adoption and effective correction of management decisions in demography.

In this regard, the development of methods for managing the demographic development of regions using predictive analytics, which is being used for the first time to solve the demographic problems of regions, will significantly increase the predictive potential of economic science, and obtain new knowledge that will allow to determining predictors (parameters) that influence the effectiveness of demographic policy.

It is important to develop the interest of young scientists in the development and testing of systems of indicators of the demographic state of the region, allowing to identify parameters influencing the effectiveness of the applied federal and regional support measures. Promising areas of scientific research in the field of regional economics may be predictive models of demographic development of regions, describing possible scenarios of demographic development of the region, mechanisms for managing the demographic development of the region, including predictive analytics as an integral part of the strategy of demographic development of the territory.

Yours faithfully,

Editor-in-Chief,

Director of Institute of Economics

Yaroslav-the-Wise Novgorod State University,

Cand. Sci. (Economics), Docent                                                                                                                 Vladimir A. Trifonov