ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF FORECASTING HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

Abstract

In the context of growing geopolitical instability and sanctions pressure, human capital is becoming a key endogenous resource that determines the trajectory of sustainable development in Russia's regions. An analysis of the scientific works of Russian and foreign authors confirms that human capital is not just a factor of production, but a systemic element that directly affects the long-term competitiveness and economic security of territories. In this context, improving the accuracy of forecast estimates for advanced strategic planning becomes a critical task. The central methodological proposal of this study is the application of an entropy approach borrowed from information theory to quantify the level of predictability of human capital development. Based on data from the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, integral indicators were calculated that aggregate key characteristics of human potential in the demographic, educational, economic, and labor sectors, as well as in the health and quality of life sectors. The subsequent calculation of entropy indicators for federal districts allowed for the quantification of the degree of internal differentiation among the regions within each macro-region. The results revealed significant interregional disparities and enabled the classification of federal districts based on the degree of uncertainty in forecasting. It has been established that the Ural Federal District demonstrates low entropy, while the Southern Federal District is characterized by maximum heterogeneity. The practical significance of the work lies in the fact that entropy analysis provides a framework for transitioning from qualitative descriptions to precise metrics of uncertainty, which allows for the development of differentiated regional policies and the adequate assessment of risks and the potential of management decisions for different types of macroregions in the country.

Keywords: forecasting, spatial differentiation, regional development, management decisions, sustainable development, federal districts, human capital, entropy analysis

Funding: the research had no sponsorship (own resources).

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About the Author

Margarita L. Bykova – Cand. Sci. (Economics); Associate Professor, Vladimir State University named after Alexander and Nikolay Stoletovs, Vladimir, Russia. E-mail: margarita93@bk.ru. SPIN РИНЦ 3256-9360. ORCID 0000-0002-0296-4781. ResearcherID AAB-8882-2022. Scopus Author ID 57220896383

For citation: Bykova M.L. Analysis of the Possibilities and Limitations of Forecasting Human Capital Development at the Regional Level // BENEFICIUM. 2026. Vol. 1(58). Pp. 69-78. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2026.1(58).69-78