IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET

Abstract

The development of the residential real estate market is determined by the macroeconomic situation, the level of uncertainty in the industry, its potential profitability, investment opportunities and many other factors. At the same time, demographic processes taking place in urban settlements significantly influence the prospects for the development of local housing markets. This article analyses the impact of natural and migration flows on the price situation and the structure of supply and demand in local residential real estate markets on the example of a "growing city" (Krasnodar) and a "shrinking city" (Bratsk). Particular attention is paid to the study of the relationship between the structural gender and age changes in the population of the cities and their agglomeration development, as well as the assessment of the preconditions for the explosive growth of demand in the local housing markets. In addition, it was found that macro factors are dominant in local residential real estate markets, while demographic factors are of a lower order, which is evident in periods of uncertainty and increased risks in the economy. It has been noted that the average family size of cities practically does not influence the structure of supply on the primary housing market: thus, despite the ongoing government policy aimed at increasing the housing availability of the population and increasing the share of families with one or more children, the flat design of new residential complexes on the primary property markets is transformed today mainly due to the growing share of studios and one-room small-sized flats. This trend on the market is only intensifying, as developers seek to maximise their profits by offering the market liquid residential properties in an affordable price range, while buyers, in turn, are limited in their financial capabilities.

Keywords: demographic situation, flat design, migration growth, housing demand, housing supply, housing market, residential real estate market

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About the Author

Valentina N. Berdnikova – Cand. Sci. (Economics), Docent; Associate Professor, IMSIT Academy, Krasnodar, Russia. E-mail: wkoshman@rambler.ru .  SPINРИНЦ 5854-6298. ORCID 0000-0002-9842-8368

For citation: Berdnikova V.N. Impact of Demographic Processes on the Development of Local Residential Real Estate Market // Beneficium. 2023. Vol.3(48). Pp. 13-20. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2023.3(48).13-20