THE IMPACT OF ONE-TIME SUPPLY-SIDE INFLATION FACTORS ON THE ANNUAL PRICE GROWTH RATE (USING THE EXAMPLE OF THE NOVGOROD REGION)

  • E.A. Dolgikh Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Veliky Novgorod, Russia
  • T.V. Kudryashova Yaroslav-the-Wise Novgorod State University, Veliky Novgorod, Russia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2024.4(53).114-123

Abstract

Food security continues to be a priority area of scientific research as one of the most important components of the economic security of individual regions and the country as a whole. Various aspects of food security, factors affecting it, tools and methods for ensuring and maintaining it are comprehensively studied. Price increases are considered as one of the most important among the factors influencing the processes of food security formation. The article examines the impact of one-time supply-side inflation factors on price inflation for food products, the production and consumption of which is an integral part of ensuring food security in the Novgorod region. In the presented work these inflation factors were studied in relation to two categories of food products, which occupy a significant share in the structure of food consumed. These are meat products (pork) and chicken eggs. Among the one–time factors of inflation on the supply side, natural factors were considered (primarily epizootic - the outbreak of African swine fever) and organizational and economic (the closure of an enterprise which provided two thirds of the production of edible eggs in the region). As a result of the conducted research, a characteristic of the price dynamics in the categories “Pork” and “Eggs” in the Novgorod region over a number of years was obtained in comparison with the average Russian values and indicators of the Northwestern Federal District. The analysis confirmed the fact that one-time inflation factors can significantly affect the dynamics of the annual rate of price growth, necessitating their consideration when making economic and managerial decisions regarding the socio-economic development of the region.

Keywords: inflation, food security, food self-sufficiency, one-time factors of inflation on the    supply side, region

References

  • Borkova K.A. Prodovol'stvennaya bezopasnost' kak chast' ekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti v Rossijskoj Federacii [Food security as a part of economic security in the Russian Federation] / Determinanty razvitiya ekonomiki i obshchestva v usloviyah global'nyh izmenenij: Sbornik statej II mezhdunarodnoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferencii [Determinants of economic and social development in the conditions of global changes: Collection of articles of the II International Scientific and Practical Conference], Moscow, April 25–26, 2024. M.: ZAO “University Book”, 2024. Pp. 39-44. (In Russ.).
  • Karp M.V., Magomedov M.D., Borozdina D.A., Chernomerdina A.R. Food Security of Russia for Meat and Meat Products within the Framework of the State Economic Security Strategy // Financial Economy. 2023. Vol. 10. Pp. 104-107. (In Russ.).
  • Patlan E.S. Factors of Ensuring Food Security as an Element of the Country’s Economic Security // Journal of Applied Research. Vol. 9. Pp. 44-50. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.47576/2949-1878_2023_9_44
  • MAGOMEDOVA Z.О., BATASHEV R.V. Food Security as an Important Component of the Country’s Economic Security // Applied Economic Research. Vol. S2. Pp. 153-158. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.47576/2949-1908_2023_S2_153
  • Sultanov H.S., Аbdurazakov O.M., Аdilov R.S. The Role and Importance of Food Security in the Region in Ensuring the Economic Security of the Country // Applied Economic Research. Vol. S2. Pp. 159-165. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.47576/2949-1908_2023_S2_159
  • Ilyashenko V.V., Kuklina L.N. Inflation in Modern Russia: Theoretical Foundations, Specific Features of Manifestation and Regional Dimension // Economy of Regions. Vol. 13(2). Pp. 434-445. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17059/2017-2-9
  • Zhemkov M.I. Regional Effects of Inflation Targeting in Russia: Factors of Heterogeneity and Structural Inflation Rates // Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2019. Vol. 9. Pp. 70-89. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2019-9-70-89
  • Serkov L.A. Inter-Regional Inflation Differential as a Consequence of Heterogeneity of the Russian Economic Space // Economy of Regions. 2020. Vol. 16(1). Pp. 325-339. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17059/2020-l-24
  • Polyakova E.V., Vymyatnina Yu.V. Formation of Economic Agents' Inflationary Expectations and Central Bank Policy Effectiveness: Еxperimental Approach // St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies. 2021. Vol. 37(3). Pp. 442-473. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.304
  • Dolgikh E.A., Kudryashova T.V. Forecasting Inflation at the Regional Level in the Short Term Using a Vector Autoregression Model // Beneficium. 2023. Vol. 2(47). Pp. 41-56. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2023.2(47).41-56
  • About inflation (2022). Bank of Russia. (In Russ.). URL: https://cbr.ru/dkp/about_inflation/#highlight=такое%7Cинфляция%7Cинфляции (accessed on 29.09.2024).
  • O nemonetarnyh faktorah inflyacii i merah po snizheniyu ee volatil'nosti [On non-monetary factors of inflation and measures to reduce its volatility] (2017). Bank of Russia. (In Russ.). URL: https://cbr.ru/content/document/file/25502/nfi.pdf (accessed on 29.09.2024).
  • Decree of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of November 15, 2022 No. 2335–8 SD “Ob Osnovnyh napravleniyah edinoj gosudarstvennoj denezhno-kreditnoj politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov” [“On the Basic Guidelines of the Unified State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the Period of 2024 and 2025”] (2022). ConsultantPlus. (In Russ.). URL: http://www.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc&ts=nfPmVTTW8ehUf63e1&cacheid=68A027D6337A93A8D2C4B054594D4310
    &mode=splus&rnd=0.18794470068694435&base=EXP&n=811797#vt9oVTTMN2Nz0DF5/ (accessed on 30.09.2024).
  • Osnovnye napravleniya edinoj gosudarstvennoj denezhno-kreditnoj politiki na 2024 god i period 2025 i 2026 godov, odobreno Sovetom direktorov Banka Rossii [Basic Guidelines of the Unified State Monetary Policy for 2024 and the Period of 2025 and 2026, approved by the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia] (2023). ConsultantPlus. (In Russ.). URL: https://www.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc&base=LAW&n=461108&dst=101516&cacheid=8C63EAEB782BA42DAC7D5CC8D
    7834803&mode=splus&rnd=0.8928952394949616#w1t0tPUULHB46U8L1 (accessed on 30.09.2024).
  • Osnovnye napravleniya edinoj gosudarstvennoj denezhno-kreditnoj politiki na 2025 god i period 2026 i 2027 godov [Basic Guidelines of the Unified State Monetary Policy for 2025 and the Period of 2026 and 2027] (2024). Bank of Russia. (In Russ.). URL: https://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/164702/on_2025(2026-2027).pdf (accessed on 31.10.2024).
  • Komitet veterinarii informiruet o registracii afrikanskoj chumy svinej v OOO “Novgorodskij bekon” ploshchadka otkorma d. Volot Volotovskogo rajona Novgorodskoj oblasti [The Veterinary Committee informs about the registration of African swine fever in LLC “Novgorod Bacon” fattening site in the village of Volot, Volotovsky District, Novgorod Region] (2019). Veterinary Committee of the Novgorod Region. (In Russ.). URL: https://komvet.novreg.ru/medianews/news/9452/ (accessed on 05.09.2024).
  • Na novgorodskom predpriyatii unichtozhili 36,6 tys. svinej iz-za afrikanskoj chumy [36.6 thousand pigs destroyed at Novgorod enterprise due to African plague] (2018). Tass. (In Russ.). URL: https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/5433513 (accessed on 05.09.2024).
  • Sel'skoe hozyajstvo, ohota i lesnoe hozyajstvo [Agriculture, hunting and forestry] (2024). Federal State Statistics Service. (In Russ.). URL: https://53.rosstat.gov.ru/enterprises_all_4 (accessed on 06.09.2024).
  • Karantin po ACHS na predpriyatii “NovSvin” budet snyat [ASF quarantine at NovSvin will be lifted] (2020). Veterinary Committee of the Novgorod Region. (In Russ.). URL: https://komvet.novreg.ru/medianews/news/57543/ (accessed on 29.09.2024).
  • Na svinokomplekse “Ust'volmskij” rasskazali o sovremennyh i bezopasnyh tekhnologiyah, ispol'zuemyh v rabote [Ustvolmsky pig farm told about modern and safe technologies used in its work] (2023). Novgorod-tv. (In Russ.). URL: https://novgorod-tv.ru/news/na-svinokomplekse-ustvolmskij-rasskazali-o-sovremennyh-i-bezopasnyh-tehnologiyah-ispolzuemyh-v-rabote/ (accessed on 30.09.2024).
  • Sel'skoe hozyajstvo, ohota i lesnoe hozyajstvo [Agriculture, hunting and forestry] (2024). Federal State Statistics Service. (In Russ.). URL: https://53.rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Животноводство(3).xls (accessed on 30.09.2024).
  • Indeksy potrebitel'skih cen na tovary i uslugi [Consumer price indices for goods and services] (2024). EMISS State statistics. (In Russ.). URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31074 (accessed on 30.09.2024).
  • OOO “Belgrankorm – Velikij Novgorod” [LLC Belgraunkorm - Veliky Novgorod] (2024). AGRO53. (In Russ.). URL: https://agro53.ru/ооо-бгк-вн/ (accessed on 01.10.2024).

About the Authors

Evgeny A. Dolgikh – Head of the Economic Department of the Novgorod Region Branch of the North-Western Main       Directorate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Veliky Novgorod, Russia. E-mail: dolgikhea@live.com. SPIN РИНЦ 5267-8466. ORCID 0009-0003-4607-6553

Tatiana V. Kudryashova – Cand. Sci. (Economics), Docent; Associate Professor; Head of the Department «The School of Project Learning», Yaroslav-the-Wise Novgorod State University, Veliky Novgorod, Russia. E-mail: tatyana.kudryashova@novsu.ru. SPIN РИНЦ 5220-2148. ORCID 0000-0003-4056-3855. ResearcherID F-2694-2019

For citation: Dolgikh E.A., Kudryashova T.V. The Impact of One-Time Supply-Side Inflation Factors on the Annual Price Growth Rate (Using the Example of the Novgorod Region) // Beneficium. 2024. Vol. 4(53). Pp. 114-123. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2024.4(53).114-123

Published
2024-11-29
Issue
No 4 (2024)
Section
REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT