WAVELET ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS OF INFLATIONARY PROCESSES IN THE NOVGOROD REGION

  • M.A. Starichkov Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Veliky Novgorod, Russia
  • E.A. Dolgikh Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Veliky Novgorod, Russia
  • A.M. Starichkov Saint Petersburg State University of Economics, Saint Petersburg, Russia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2025.4(57).139-150

Abstract

The article suggests considering the possibility of using wavelet analysis as an additional tool for studying inflationary processes using the example of the Russian Federation and the Novgorod Region. The objectives of this work are to popularize this method among domestic researchers and economists, as well as the practical application of the method to conduct a deeper analysis of inflationary processes. One of the advantages of using wavelet analysis is that there is no need to transform time series to a stationary form, which reduces the risk of distortion of the research results. Monthly data from the Federal State Statistics Service on consumer price indices for the Novgorod Region and Russia as a whole were used as an empirical base. The length of the studied row was 330 points, which allows for a qualitative study. The study uses a set of algorithms, including a continuous wavelet transform to assess the significance of inflationary impulses, a wavelet coherence analysis to assess the consistency of price dynamics in the region and the country as a whole, as well as a discrete wavelet transform with maximum overlap for a multi-scale decomposition of the consumer price index into components of different frequency. Key inflationary shocks have been identified using wavelet spectra, with the longest duration of the impact on prices characteristic of the 1998 crisis. The results of the study confirm the high correlation of inflation dynamics in the Novgorod region and in Russia as a whole, and also reveal the greatest volatility in the service sector and the presence of long inflationary cycles. In conclusion, the authors summarize the key advantages of wavelet analysis, including noting the possibility of visual and informative visualization of data processing results.

Keywords: wavelet analysis, wavelet coherence, time series, price dynamics, maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform, consumer price index, inflation, coherence, continuous wavelet transform

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About the Authors 

Mikhail A. Starichkov – Cand. Sci. (Economics), Managing Director of the Novgorod Regional Division of the North-Western Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Veliky Novgorod, Russia. E-mail: mike157z@mail.ru. SPIN РИНЦ 7037-0732. ORCID 0009-0008-5165-8888

Evgeny A. Dolgikh – Head of the Economic Department of the Novgorod Regional Division of the North-Western Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Veliky Novgorod, Russia. E-mail: dolgikhea@live.com. SPIN РИНЦ 5267-8466. ORCID 0009-0003-4607-6553

Alexey M. Starichkov – Student, Saint Petersburg State University of Economics, Saint Petersburg, Russia. E-mail: moopin51@mail.ru. ORCID 0009-0001-0118-8039. 

For citation: Starichkov M.A., Dolgikh E.A., Starichkov A.M. Wavelet Analysis of the Dynamics of Inflationary Processes in the Novgorod Region // BENEFICIUM. 2025. Vol. 4(57). Pp. 139-150. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2025.4(57).139-150

 

Published
2025-11-28
Issue
No 4 (2025)
Section
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES