ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF INNOVATION INDICATORS IN THE SECTORS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

Improving the efficiency of innovation is consistent with the development goals of the Russian Federation and is relevant in the context of the state's technological sovereignty. This article examines innovation in the extractive and manufacturing industries. The indicators examined in this paper, which characterize innovation and its development, reflect the volume of innovative products and expenditures on innovation. The statistical data analysis period covers the period from 2017 to 2024. The forecast is calculated until 2026. The analysis tools included annual growth and baseline growth indicators, as well as the coefficient of variation. The analysis of statistical data revealed significant differences in the dynamics of innovation expenditures and the volume of innovative products produced. Enterprises operating in the mining industry significantly reduced innovation expenditures and the volume of innovative products in 2020, while manufacturing industries as a whole did not respond to the 2020 crisis associated with the COVID-2019 pandemic. An analysis of annual growth rates revealed consistent changes in costs and output for the mining industry and different dynamics for manufacturing. The developed regression models are highly accurate and explain over 90% of the possible deviations in the studied indicators. The calculated forecast values up to 2026 show varying annual growth rates, differing from historical indicators. The analysis conducted in the industries examined revealed varying degrees of sensitivity of innovation activity to external influences and economic factors.

Keywords: mining, costs, innovation, production volume, manufacturing, forecasting, statistical      analysis

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About the Author

Kirill B. Gerasimov – Dr. Sci. (Economics), Docent; Professor, Samara National Research University, Samara, Russia. E-mail: 270580@bk.ru. SPIN РИНЦ 8692-6921. ORCID 0000-0001-6342-3076. Researcher ID M-6776-2014. Scopus Author ID 57220388192

For citation: Gerasimov K.B. Analysis and Forecasting of Innovation Indicators in the Sectors of the Russian Federation // BENEFICIUM. 2025. Vol. 4(57). Pp. 27-36. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2025.4(57).27-36